On 4 December 2025, in collaboration with the LUMS Chaudhry Nazar Muhammad Department of Economics, the Mahbub Ul Haq Research Centre hosted Shahid Javed Burki (Burki Institute of Public Policy) at LUMS to give a talk titled Geopolitics, Demographics, and Pakistan’s Policy Future.

Shahid Javed Burki is a leading economist and policymaker with decades of experience in global development and public policy, including at the World Bank. He served as Pakistan’s Finance Minister on a caretaker basis in 1996–97 and currently serves as Chairman of the Burki Institute of Public Policy (BIPP). Mr. Burki is a prolific writer on economic development, governance, and political economy, and his work spans Pakistan, South Asia, and global development policy.

On the subject of politics, Mr. Burki quoted Jinnah and stressed upon the importance of Pakistan being a country not merely for Muslims but for people of all religions.

Pakistan must make sure that its relationship with China is strong. With the rise of China and Russia – among others – one single country is no longer the sole determinant of where the world is going, and Pakistan must take hope from this. A consistently healthy relationship with China, in particular, is crucial for both China and Pakistan. He warned of Pakistan falling under the domination of imperialist powers.

On demographics, he referred to the formula that determines whether a population will remain steady, increase or decrease: if the number of children born per woman is 2.1, it will remain steady, and if it is more than 2.1, it will increase, and vice versa. Pakistan, he pointed out, has one of the highest fertility rates in the world at 3.4 children born per woman. Mr. Burki deemed the development of women to be crucial: the 2.1 fertility rate must be reached, and to do so, Pakistan should take a leaf out of Bangladesh’s book by providing more women with employment.

He lamented that Pakistan has become the worst-performing country in Asia. Bangladesh must be looked at as an example of success in this case, as it has overtaken Pakistan in terms of size of GDP and rate of growth.

He recommended that the future of Pakistan be looked at in terms of its endowments. One of these is the country’s youth, and another is the country’s agricultural system – one of the richest in the world but being misused. He referred to his academic work from his days at Harvard University, when he wrote a paper suggesting that Pakistan use rainwater to irrigate its wheat crop, a practice followed successfully by Russia. He also advised that Pakistan move away from the production of food grains and towards the growth of high-value crops.

He said that policymakers must make informed decisions and that can only come as a result of being well-researched in data and evidence and by considering all angles of geopolitics and demographics when formulating policies. This latter awareness is not limited to policymakers but to all people in the country. For example, the industry in Sialkot is running well but unaware of international business trends and practices, which is why the Chinese sports industry has, in a span of two years, snatched more than half of Pakistan’s market from it.

He ended the talk by highlighting the absence of respect for law and order in Pakistan, and the lack of regard for regulations, one example being that soft coal in brick kilns is banned and yet the practice has not ended here.